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Jihai Year of the Pig-Hope! Looking forward to the spring breeze (on)

来源:经济日报-中国经济网黄春棉 January 9, 2020 06:39 Source: Economic Daily-China Economic Network Huang Chunmian

Every year, people are often accustomed to using one word to summarize the situation of the past year, political, economic, and social ... When the China Economic Network car channel entered the lunar month in the Chinese lunar calendar, it used a word— " "Pop" to summarize and summarize the 2019 that has passed, which is what the Chinese call the "year of the pig" automobile industry.

"Pan" means "divide the sound from the head" in Shuo Wen Jie Zi, that is, it is disassembled into two parts: "head" and "point". The original meaning is "eyes turn around, eyes look around"; the extension is: hope (See what you want to see). Choosing "Pan" as the keyword may be in line with the current mentality of the automotive industry, that is, pay attention to observation, wait for the opportunity, and hope that there can be brand-new changes.

2019 is the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. Looking back, the Chinese people have embarked on an arduous and hard-working path from "standing up", "getting rich" to "strengthening". For the automotive industry, this historical mission is also worth remembering, from scratch, from small to large, and then to a new journey from large to strong.

In 2019, China has been ranked as the world's largest automobile market for 11 consecutive years, but the reality of continuous decline in sales has been put forward. Comprehensive factors from home and abroad continue to put pressure on the industrial economy. The phenomenon of intensified polarization, new and old forces are intertwined, and the "elimination match" in the automotive industry can be described as the curtain.

Undercurrent changes, surging currents surging! In the upcoming Lunar Year of the Pig, we must systematically summarize and review in order to better meet the future. The word "pan" is the key word, borrowing the well-known "Spring" by Mr. Zhu Ziqing, "Looking forward, looking forward, Dongfeng is coming, The footsteps of spring are near. "

Multiple industry policies drive prudent external environment

Energy saving and emission reduction have always been the direction of the unremitting efforts of the automotive industry. Since the 1990s, China has successively introduced the experience of reducing emissions from European and American vehicles, and adopted control measures from fuel consumption and multiple pollutant emissions. A model of joint supervision including transportation, environmental protection, and industrial credit has gradually formed. In 2019, with the implementation of "National Six" emission upgrade standards, the administrative will for environmental protection upgrades will be further highlighted.

From the perspective of specific implementation, the administrative units of various provinces and cities nationwide adhere to the flexible policy of "comprehensive implementation and different emphasis", and promote "emissions upgrade" step by step based on the actual situation in the region. For car companies, this is not only a "test question" of technical strength, but also a "question and answer question" of the marketing system, which comprehensively tests the comprehensive strength of the company.

Judging from the phenomenon, because "National Five" rose to "National Six", market consumption was "overdrawn" in stages, and some companies with shorter product lines also encountered the "vacuum period" after the "National Six" upgrade. A certain degree of impact on the company's sales performance, such as Cadillac, Infiniti and Acura brands. In addition, how to avoid the "killing" of old product prices caused by the "National Six" upgrade, and even the overall impact on the sales system, is a comprehensive test of the industry.

Another important policy is the “regression” of subsidies for new energy vehicles. According to the “Notice on Promoting and Applying Financial Support Policies for New Energy Vehicles 2016-2020”, 2020 will be the “cut-off period” for subsidies. However, since July 2019, the market shock caused by the subsidy has been significantly reduced. According to the data released by the Federation, from January to November, the domestic wholesale volume of new energy vehicles was 923,000, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%. In November, it was only 79,000, which increased to 41.7%. . The “subsidy” was withdrawn and immediately fell—the reality urged us to consider whether new energy vehicles, especially pure electric technologies and products, are real market demands? How can the new energy market generated by policies be developed in a sustainable and healthy way? What is the breakthrough for the newly cultivated market in the era of "post-subsidy"? Once the “restriction on travel and purchase” policy of some cities is loosened, will it become the “last straw that crushes camels”?

Of course, in addition to the above two "explicit" policies, the "double points" policy led by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will also usher in a "big test" in 2020. For enterprises, there have been obvious layouts and measures in 2019. International car companies such as Volkswagen, Toyota, and GM have increased their investment in new energy. This can be fully seen in the next product layout.

"Matthew Effect" Aggravates System Capability to King

Falling again and again is the main tone of the auto market in 2019. According to various sources, the annual sales volume of the auto market will show a decline of about 8%. Taking into account the "micro growth" of commercial vehicles, the decline of passenger cars The magnitude is expected to "bottom out" in double digits. This also means that the aspiration of the Chinese auto market to hit the 30 million vehicle mark is once again hard to pay.

The huge downward pressure on the market has most directly exacerbated the "Matthew Effect", that is, the industry concentration has further increased, the market share of strong companies or brands has increased, and marginal enterprises are facing a critical moment of life and death. Take FAW-Volkswagen, which has the most eye-catching performance, as an example. It will take the lead to complete the production and sales of 2 million vehicles by the end of 2019 and lock in the joint venture car sales champion in advance. In many communications with FAW-Volkswagen, it is not difficult to find that from design, research and development, manufacturing, to sales and service, FAW-Volkswagen's system capabilities are impressive. Through the three brands of Volkswagen, Audi and Jetta FAW-Volkswagen's differentiated layout and the advancement of SUV product offensives have won wonderful performances against the upward trend.

FAW-Volkswagen produces and sells over 2 million vehicles in 2019

In contrast, both SAIC-Volkswagen and SAIC-GM, which have comparable weights, and Dongfeng Nissan, SAIC-GM-Wuling and Beijing Hyundai, which still have gaps, have shown varying degrees of decline. In particular, SAIC-GM-Wuling, in the process of blindly promoting the new brand, not only has a hard time doing more, but has also let the traditional advantage of the "micro-faced market" fall to the ground. As for Dongfeng Nissan and Beijing Hyundai, the former supports the base of millions of vehicles, and the old products and technology are difficult to resonate with consumers; the latter gradually recovers from the painful "trough", but from the analysis of products Look, the decline of large and medium-sized flagship models exposes the weakness of the brand's insufficient power.

It is worth mentioning that Honda and Toyota performed well in 2019. With the cooperation of partners, the market increased significantly; Dongfeng Honda and Guangqi Honda jointly contributed over 1.55 million vehicles, and Honda continued its sales in China. The first Japanese brand. Lean management philosophy, bold measures of "North-South double car" and long-term accumulated user reputation have allowed Japanese brands to continuously achieve "marathon" success. (Economic Daily-China Economic Network reporter Huang Chunmian)

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(Responsible editor: Zhang Ye)

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  • Jihai Year of the Pig-Hope! Looking forward to the spring breeze (on)

    来源:经济日报-中国经济网黄春棉 2020-01-09 06:39 Source: Economic Daily-China Economic Net
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